Azerbaijan's Food-Grade Wheat Sector: SWOT Analysis and Institutional Development Prospects

Food-grade wheat production is one of the strategic indicators characterizing Azerbaijan's food security. Milling wheat production reflects the quality of agrarian land relations and the effectiveness of state support in agriculture. The self-sufficiency level has remained at around 55% for a long time, suggesting that the limitations are not only associated with the size of arable land and natural resources. Land fragmentation, small farm sizes, water losses, inequality in access to quality seeds and agronomic services, limited coverage of agricultural insurance, and weak integration between production, processing, and logistics limit the expansion of domestic production. The aim of this study is to assess the sector using SWOT analysis, reconsider the results of the 1990s reforms in terms of modern development requirements, and propose an institutional model for the new stage. Voluntary land use consolidation, the Agricultural Land Bank, regional agricultural combines, a result-based subsidy model, risk-based agricultural insurance, the National Food-grade Wheat Council, double statistical accounting of wheat, the Agricultural Science Transfer Agency, and the application of the farmer income indicator are justified. The study proposes a sustainable self-sufficiency target of 70-75%, without making import substitution a goal in itself as a strategic direction.